Will it be the last dance?
Mr. Mancini now has to face the uncomfortable scene of “winning or go home”.
As in any proper direct elimination match the tension for the Italian national team’s game on March 24 is tangible, even remembering the elimination in the last edition caused by Sweden.
The two World Cup Qualifiers Playoff matches are crucial to decide the destiny of the national team.
The first one, the semifinal against North Macedonia, which will be played at the Renzo Barbera stadium of Palermo, seems like an easy game for Italy; indeed the toughest one would be the final where Azzurri have to play with the winning team between Turkey and Portugal (29th March).
The main issue that has brought the team to this play-off is undoubtedly the offence: in the last 5 games there was only 1 victory with a huge margin against Lithuania (5-0, goal scored by Kean, Raspadori and Di Lorenzo) and then 4 draws with only 2 goals in total, one with Bulgaria and the other one against Switzerland.
The bloody games in the journey of Italy were actually the two draws against the Swiss team marked by two missed penalties by Jorginho, one of which could have given victory and qualification to Azzurri in the 90’ minute. In his career, the Italian-Brazilian midfielder has a track record of 38 scored penalties out of 44 shots (86% successful rate), but after the penalty scored in the semi-final against Spain he missed the next three with the national jersey.
This is indicative of how the Italian team needs a number 9 in the most critical moments to close out games, despite having a former European Golden Shoe winner like Ciro Immobile in the strikers unit, who is not the team’s penalty taker since he has a career history of 65 penalties scored and 15 missed (69% successful rate).
The Lazio forward won the European Golden Shoe in the 2019/2020 season with 36 goals showing his goal-killing instinct. Recently Immobile has become the most prolific bomber in the history of Lazio team, but with the national team he’s not having the same impact.
He scored compressively 15 goals in 54 appearances, placing him 19th among the national team’s top scorers; after the two scored in the first two games of Euro 2020, both with the game already closed, the Torre Annunziata’s striker has not scored again.
The selection of Mister Mancini has been announced and the forward selection includes:
Sassuolo’s players Berardi, Scamacca and Raspadori; the certainty of Insigne; the surprises Zaccagni and Politano; the unpredictability of Zaniolo; the Cagliari number 10 João Pedro who, after gaining Italian citizenship, can be now recruited for these important challenges, ending with the recovery of Belotti after a lot of injuries and obviously Ciro Immobile.
His average WSF Performance Index of 6.7, the highest among the strikers, states anyway that Immobile is the most in shape as well as the top scorer in Serie A with 21 goals (with 6 penalties), shooting on goal 1.9 times per game.
The Sassuolo’s trident has collected 36 goals in total respectively 14 Berardi, 13 Scamacca and 9 Raspadori.
The left foot forward Berardi, who just reached in the last game the important record of 100 goals in Serie A with the Sassuolo jersey, has the best WSF Performance Index (6.6) among the three of them: he also gave 11 assists, he is the second in the list of Mancini for shots on goal (37 in Serie A matches) and he is also first in key passes data (59). All these stats confirm the great season Berardi is having.
The two young players that can give new life to the Italian offence are in a very good shape too: Raspadori, who has already participated in the Euro 2020 expedition playing only 1 game, has an average WSF Performance Index of 6.1 (he served up 4 assists). He could give different solutions to the Italian Head Coach because he has the agility and the ability to move in tight spaces.
On the other hand, Gianluca Scamacca has the perfect features to be the classic “number 9” with his 1.95m height and his strength combined with good technique.
The Roman striker, who is at the centre of many market rumours, suggesting he will change teams next year, is finally proving to be reliable in the goal area. An impressive data among the other forwards is that he has the lowest average of minutes played per game (58 mins) but from the beginning of 2022 year he has already scored 7 goals in 10 games (the last one even from free kick against Spezia), registering the most growth in performance (6%) of all the forwards.
Napoli’s captain is one of the certainties that the coach relies on, even though he was tried with poor results as a false centre forward in the last qualification game (0-0 against Northern Ireland). He played all matches from the beginning of Euro 2020 till now missing the only one game with Lituania.
He is the second after Immobile for average shots on goal with 1.7 per game; he has scored 7 goals in the Serie A championship of which 6 on penalties and gave 6 assists. Another relevant data is the quantity of key passes that he has given till now (42): Napoli has the second highest number of shots on goal in Serie A and Insigne is one of the key players in the offensive action. In the second part of the championship, after the news of his transfer to Toronto in MLS next year was made official, he had a slight drop in his actions on the pitch: his WSF Performance Index had a drop of 4% between first and second part (from 6.5 to 6.2), but he keeps being a fundamental player for Napoli.
The real surprise of this selection is Mattia Zaccagni at his first appearance with the national team. The current Lazio player is returning to his best performances after struggling to fit into Maurizio Sarri’s plans. He began the season with Hellas Verona, where last year he made a breakout season with 5 goals and 7 assists playing mainly as attacking midfielder. Then he transferred to Lazio where in the first half of the championship (from the 3rd to 19th match) he had an average of 49 mins played due to injuries and also due to the excellent performances of Felipe Anderson and Pedro in his role. While, in the last 10 games, playing as left winger in the classic Sarri’s attack, he has an average of 72 minutes played and scored 2 goals and served up 4 assists.
His ability to play in multiple roles gives Mancini an alternative to change the line-up, leaving the 4-3-3 to make space for a 4-2-3-1. In this case he and Lorenzo Pellegrini would be the perfect choice to play in the attacking midfield position.
The choice of Matteo Politano was almost obligatory given by the role he plays and the heavy absence of Federico Chiesa, who is however an important player to line up. He also benefited from the great year of Napoli and the way of playing of coach Spalletti, who relies on the wing forwards. Anyway despite not being a starter (17 games as a starter and 10 as a substitute) he has maintained a stable performance WSF Performance Index 6.0 with 1 goal and 4 assists.
He has a very unique record in his appearances with the national team: 4 games and 3 goals, all scored in friendly matches.
One more important key of the Italian offence is Nicolò Zaniolo, one of the few Italian footballers in this selection who is able to break down games at any time, even the most deadlocked ones, with his acceleration. One of the coach’s favourites, who made him debut at the age of 19 without having played a single minute in Serie A, in the last two years he missed the entire championship 2020/2021 and a good part of the previous one because of two broken cruciate ligaments one per knee that are really serious injuries for a player with his characteristics.
Now he seems to have finally found the right conditioning, he is still not impressive for his numbers (2 goals and 4 assist) but he’s a little bit improving in dangerous on goal, with 0.9 shots on goal per game compared to 0.6 in the first half of the championship.
João Pedro, who has been in Italy for almost 10 years, obtained Italian citizenship last year and, since he has never been called up by the Brazilian national team, can be in the selection of Mr. Mancini.
In recent years, the Brazilian-Italian footballer has been one of the assurances of the Serie A: in the last 2 championships he has scored 18 and 16 goals respectively, confirming himself as one of the most important players in the league.
Despite the 10 goals scored, an analysis of his WSF Performance Index shows a drop by 11%, the worst among the Italian forwards, from an average of 6.0 to 5.4 between the first part of the season (from match-day 1 to match-day 20) and the last ones from match-day. Indeed since the beginning of 2022 he has only scored one goal but he is still the third one for total shots on goal (30) after Berardi and Immobile. The reason why he has been selected is the combination of ability on goal scoring between a very good technique that allows him to play even like first and second forward as he already did this year in Cagliari.
Last but not least, the Torino number 9 Andrea Belotti who this year has struggled with several injuries and he made only 15 appearances and 4 goals.
His last goal with the national team on a penalty kick came last year in an Italy Bulgaria 2-0 win; with the Italian selection in total he has collected 12 goals in 41 appearances.
In recent years, the 28-years-old player, is also at the centre of several market rumours because of the difficult relationship with the president Cairo: in the current season Belotti is not shining but previously he has been the reference point of the “granata” attack, scoring 44 goals in 3 seasons. This earned him a team place in Mancini’s roster and the European expedition where he alternated with Immobile adding more weight inside the penalty area thanks to his aerial and header skills.
So, who will raise the destiny of Italy?